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Georgian Currency Seeking Point of Balance

Experts Forecast GEL to Fall to 2.90 point against USD.

According to National Bank of Georgia (NBG), today, the GEL exchange rate against USD is 2.56, while at commercial banks the exchange rate stands at 2.62-2.66 point. On August 13 in the Bloomberg trading systole the GEL exchange rate against USD ranged from 2.55 to 2.62 point.

The Georgian national currency continues collapsing. The currency market experts forecast that the GEL exchange rate against USD may fall to 2.90 point.

Why is GEL depreciating?

The field specialists refer to external factors to explain GEL exchange rate depreciation against USD. They also mention several domestic factors. Prior to going into details, we should mention several factors that ensure GEL exchange rate stability:

Foreign direct investments – 2679 300 000 USD as of 1Q18;
Number of international visitors – in January-June, a total of 3 561 961 visitors arrived in Georgia. Growth in tourism sector made up +13.65% compared to the same period of 2017
Export – 1 593 595 000 USD in January-June 2018.
Money transfers – 744 195 600 USD in January-June 2018.

Based on the mentioned indicators, experts rule out that domestic factors could affect the GEL exchange rate. Real reasons are as follows:

Dispute Between U.S. And Turkey Turkey’s currency is in a bad way.

That much is evident from the past week, which has seen the lira tumble in value at a breakneck pace. It has dropped more than 40 percent against the U.S. dollar on the year, with much of that plunge unfolding since the start of August.

US sanctions against Russia: Rubble falls

Several days ago, Ministry of Finance of Germany noted that the Trump’s initiative for withdrawal from Nuclear Agreement with Iran is questionable. This initiative will not be implemented supposedly, because European companies have taken huge orders from Iran.

Two days ago, five countries of the Caspian Sea basin (Turkmenistan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan) signed the agreement, under which borders, resources and minerals will be employed rationally. The parties also plan to achieve agreement on transportation issues in the Caspian Sea basin. The field specialists explain that this is a serious statement , because it will be difficult for the USA to make influence on the Caspian Sea basin countries. As a result, Georgia may lose political interest.